The estimated Brazilian sugarcane production is 689.8 million tons, according to the data released on August 22 in the 2nd Survey of the 2024-2025 harvest of the product.  

The volume, if confirmed, will be the second largest to be harvested in the historical series monitored by the National Supply Company (Conab), behind only the production obtained in the previous cycle. 

With an estimated 8.63 million hectares destined for harvest, an increase of 3.5% compared to the 2023/2024 cycle, this reduction in production of 3.3% is mainly explained by the lower performance of the crops since Conab estimated a drop in productivity of 6.6%, expected at 79,953 kilos per hectare. Low rainfall combined with high temperatures recorded in the country’s Center-South region are the main factors that should reduce production in relation to the last harvest.

Responsible for 64.2% of sugarcane production in the country, the Southeast region has an estimated harvest of 442.8 million tons, a decrease of 5.6% compared to the 2023-2024 harvest, with the most significant reduction of 27.22 million tons observed in São Paulo. The average productivity of the region showed a significant decrease, reaching 82,879 kilos per hectare, 9.9% lower than that recorded in 2023-2024, reflecting the substantial water deficit, thus causing critical levels of water availability in the soil.

For the Center-West region, the estimate is a harvest of 149.17 million tons, an increase of 2.8% compared to the last cycle. With the harvest reaching approximately 49% of production, average productivity should remain stable despite the adverse weather conditions at the end of last year, remaining at around 81,577 kg/ha. The increase in production is influenced by the larger area allocated to the crop due to new leases close to the production units.

The sugarcane-producing areas in the country’s North and Northeast follow the upward movement in production recorded in the Center-West. However, in these two regions, in addition to the increase in area, Conab also verified an increase in the average productivity of the crops. In the Northeast, the estimated sugarcane production is 59.62 million tons, an increase of 5.6% compared to that obtained in the previous harvest, while in the North, production is expected to reach 4.04 million tons, an increase of 2.6% when compared to 2023/2024.

In the South, the region is expected to produce 34.21 million tons of sugarcane, a reduction in the volume obtained in the previous cycle due to the estimated lower productivity and area.

Products – With approximately 50% of the estimated sugarcane production harvested, Conab confirms that most of the raw material will be used for sugar production. Production of the sweetener is estimated at 46 million tons, an increase of 0.7% compared to the previous harvest, a new record in the historical series if the result is confirmed.

Another product made from sugarcane, ethanol, is expected to see a 4.1% reduction, estimated at 28.47 billion liters. The lower allocation of sugarcane to fuel production is explained by more favorable market conditions for sugar, in addition to the lower production of the raw material in this harvest. On the other hand, ethanol derived from corn has seen a 17.3% growth, already corresponding to approximately 20% of the total fuel production in the country, estimated at 6.94 billion liters. This increase contributes to the total ethanol production remaining at around 35.41 billion liters.

Market – The scenario for sugar in the international market remains favorable. The demand for the Brazilian product remains strong. Between April and July of this year, sales of the sweetener to the international market totaled more than 11.6 million tons, according to data from the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC). The volume is 27.1% higher than the volume shipped in the same period of the previous harvest. The value of these exports followed the upward movement and also grew significantly, reaching US$5.6 billion, an increase of almost 24% compared to the period from April to July 2023 The favorable price scenario for producers is expected to continue in the coming months since a drop in production is projected in Asia.

In the case of ethanol, the panorama is the opposite. In the 2024-2025 harvest, Brazilian exports of the fuel have registered a drop of 17.2% compared to the same period of the previous harvest, totaling 440.1 million liters. （from agropages）